How Many Americans Live Abroad?

By Doris L. Speer, AARO President
Updated: October, 2024

AARO estimates that 5.5 million Americans live abroad.

Estimating the numbers of Americans living overseas is challenging. In November 2023, AARO estimated that at least 5.4 million Americans live abroad, while noting that, understandably, various organizations, experts and the U.S. Government had different and widely diverging estimates.

As new data and information has since become available, AARO has decided to update our estimate. In doing so, our research shows again disparate estimates of the number of Americans living overseas, so we have examined the bases on which these estimates were made, as well as their assumptions, sources and supporting data.

Based on this research and current information, AARO estimates that 5.5 million Americans live abroad.

We describe below the results of our research.

I. Two Estimates Examined Closely by AARO

Mr. Pinto’s Estimate for 2023: 5.5 million

AARO has been consulting for many years with Mr. Heitor David Pinto, an engineer living near Washington D.C. Mr. Pinto has researched a variety of international topics such as human migration, passport statistics, and comparison of nationality and tax laws among countries. He has also been involved in advocacy for international individuals, in particular Americans abroad. (Note 1)

Mr. Pinto made a deep analysis and has recently estimated that a total of 5,538,342 U.S. citizens live overseas. He shared his research with us.

Mr. Pinto started from data compiled by the United Nations for 2020 from the most recent census of every country, and updated it with U.S. census data for 2022 and with census data for the years 2010 - 2023 from some individual countries. The census data of each country shows the number of people residing there who were born in each other country so, in the case of Americans abroad, it means only people born in the U.S. Mr. Pinto then took the more detailed census data from some countries showing parents’ place of birth to estimate the number of Americans born there from a parent who was born in the U.S., and applied it to all other countries proportionally.

His analysis presents the number of U.S. citizens living abroad as people born in the U.S. plus those born abroad with at least a parent who was born in the U.S. (so it includes the so-called “accidental Americans”). He also included naturalized citizens, assuming that they have the same emigration rate from the U.S. as the rest of the U.S. population. This analysis is an admitted simplification, as it includes some people who are not U.S. citizens (those born in the U.S. from foreign diplomats, or born abroad from American parents who didn’t reside in the U.S. for enough years to transmit U.S. citizenship, or those who renounced U.S. citizenship). But there is no data available to estimate these particular cases and their numbers are thought to be relatively small. Mr. Pinto’s estimate does not include military personnel or their families.

Mr. Pinto estimates that the following are the 10 most populous countries:

[Please note that, while tables in this document show numerical results down to the individual person, the specific numbers are estimates and not exact counts.]

The Federal Voting Assistance Program Estimate for 2022: 4.4 Million

The Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP) is a voter assistance and education program established by the United States Department of Defense. It is statutorily mandated to report on the registration and voting activities of the populations the FVAP serves after each general election, including U.S. citizens living overseas. The FVAP conducts the Overseas Citizen Population Analysis (OCPA) after each federal election, which includes an estimate of the number of U.S. citizens living abroad. Each time the OCPA is conducted, the estimating methodology is updated with newly available data.

The FVAPs 2022 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis, issued in late 2023, estimated that there were 4.4 million U.S. citizens living overseas in 2022, distributed across 185 countries. This estimate did not include military personnel or their families. (Note 2)

AARO notes that this number is much lower than the FVAPs estimate in the 2020 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis Report, which stated that 4.8 million U.S. citizens lived overseas in 2018, in other words, there was a reduction of 400,000 Americans overseas between 2018 and 2022. (Note 3) The FVAP’s breakdown by region of U.S. citizens overseas is as follows:

The FVAP estimates that the five most populous countries are the following:

The FVAP used three primary data sources: foreign country data on the number of U.S. citizens living within foreign countries’ borders, U.S. Government administrative data on overseas citizens, and data from academic studies. See 2022 OCPA Technical Report, page 175. The 2022 report incorporated new data sources for foreign government estimates and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as well as updated records of U.S. citizens living overseas who filed taxes using a foreign address. (Note 4) See 2022 FVAP Voter Brief.

The FVAP explains the difference between its 2018 and 2022 estimations as follows: “Because the data changed, the models changed, and thus the final estimates for the 2000 - 2020 period differ from those in pre-2022 OCPA reports.” (Note 5) Importantly, the FVAP also says that it will continue to update its estimates as new 2022 data becomes available.

Because AARO found the significantly reduced numbers a bit mystifying, AARO has corresponded with the FVAP regarding the analysis behind and the assumptions made in the 2022 OCPA.

II. Other Estimates: Ranging from 9 Million to 3 Million

Below are other organizations who have communicated their view of the numbers of Americans abroad in recent years. AARO did not take these views into account in its own estimation for the various reasons described below.

The State Department: The State Department has stated since 2016 that 9 million Americans live abroad, without disclosing the basis for this estimate. The State Department verbally informed AARO in June 2024 that they “stopped using that number.” The State Department also informed AARO in a written statement that “U.S. citizens are not required to register their presence abroad, and we do not maintain comprehensive lists of U.S. citizens residing overseas. Estimates of U.S. citizens in particular countries can vary and are constantly changing. We do not want to publish figures that cannot be considered authoritative.” (Note 6) AARO is not surprised at this new position as the State Department number was considered by many as an overestimation. It was said to count all Americans outside the U.S. for any reason, including tourists, not Americans living abroad, because the number was used for contingency operation planning. Some organizations do continue to cite this number, however.

Democrats Abroad: The organization Democrats Abroad has informed us that their official position is currently that of the State Department.

Tax Fairness for Americans Abroad: This recently created organization has publicly communicated the State Department’s number as the number of Americans abroad.

World Population Review: The World Population Review (WPR) is an independent for-profit organization committed to delivering up-to-date global population data and demographics. The WPR estimates that, in 2024, there are more than 8 million expats today living overseas. See World Population Review. However, the WPR provides no background data nor methodology describing how they reached their number.

American Citizens Abroad (ACA): AARO was informed that by the ACA that it estimated that, in 2022, there were about 3.9 million U.S. civilians and 1.2 million service members and other government-affiliated Americans abroad, for a total of 5.1 million. AARO has not seen the study supporting this estimate nor the methodologies or underlying assumptions.

United Nations (UN): According to the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the number of U.S. migrants as of July 1, 2020, was estimated to be 2,996,223. See U.N. Migrant Stock. It has been said in the past by the FVAP that the UN’s methodology could result in estimates lower than the “true” number of U.S. citizens abroad for several reasons, including that the UN counts primarily U.S.-born individuals, rather than U.S. citizens, and therefore may not capture dual citizens very well.

World Bank: The World Bank Group has made annual estimates since 1960 of the number of U.S. migrants in its Databank - Global Bilateral Migration. But its latest publicly available estimate is from 2000, which we consider too old to be useful in our estimation.

AARO does not know of any other persons or organizations who have developed or supported an estimate.

An interesting fact: Internal Revenue Service records show that, for calendar year 2021 (the latest year for which data is available), 719,690 U.S. tax returns were filed by Americans with overseas addresses, representing approximately 1.3 million persons.

III. Number of Americans Abroad is Uncertain

There will always be a level of uncertainty about the true number of overseas U.S. citizens because actual numbers are either unavailable or unreliable. In general, the U.S. Government does not keep track of where U.S. citizens might be living, working, or studying overseas. Further, there is no exact count of the total number of overseas citizens because:

• The U.S. Census Bureau piloted a program in 2004 to assess the feasibility of including overseas citizens in its decennial census, but the study found that full implementation would be prohibitively expensive and the data quality would not be sufficient. So, overseas Americans, other than overseas military and federal personnel, are not included in the U.S. census.
• Individuals who travel or live abroad can register with their local embassy, but no official registry is kept. Registries that do exist include citizens on short-term travel as well as long-term relocation, and there is no process to remove people from the list who have returned to the United States.
• Although some nations likely have data on the number of U.S. citizens currently in their country, it is not always possible to gain access to it. Further, many other nations do not produce a consistent enumeration of the number of overseas citizens who live within their borders.

As succinctly stated by recognized author and expert Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels, (Note 7) “it’s extraordinarily difficult to find a precise and accurate figure of overseas Americans. Estimates are based on partial numbers, plus a series of assumptions, and are only as good as those assumptions. We have no one complete source.”

That is why one must estimate the number of Americans living abroad. But this is complex and the assumptions made lead to divergent views, as evidenced by the wide range of numbers noted in this article. There will always be some margin of error. Further, the difference in these estimates is due not only to the impossibility of accurately counting the number of U.S. citizens abroad, but also may reflect advocacy considerations, as some believe that a larger number would better support their advocacy priority and others a lower one.

IV. AARO’s View: 5.5 Million

Because AARO has access to the methodology and underlying assumptions and finds them credible, AARO supports Mr. Pinto’s 5.5 million number. We note that this number is quite similar to AARO’s 2023 estimation, which was based on data from 2018 that AARO had adjusted for estimated growth since then.

Although the FVAP’s analysis and responses to AARO’s questions were comprehensive, AARO finds it difficult at this time to wholeheartedly support the considerable reduction in the number of Americans abroad estimated by the FVAP. AARO will, however, continue to monitor the information and data from the FVAP.

As mentioned above, Mr. Pinto’s number does not include U.S. military personnel living overseas, nor their families. AARO believes that, based on certain government data, between 200,000 (Note 8) and 350,000 (Note 9) military personnel and their families live overseas. But AARO prefers not to include the military in its estimate because many active-duty military are on U.S. military bases or ships (i.e., not considered residents of the other country) and/or are assigned abroad temporarily. Further, being federal employees, they are usually not affected by the same problems that civilian Americans abroad face.

If all Americans overseas were placed in one state, they would be a formidable force: A diaspora of 5.5 million U.S. citizens abroad would be the 23rd most populous state in the United States, between Minnesota and South Carolina! See the below table for the states with estimated population in the 5 million range, ranked by such population:

V. Living Overseas is Difficult for Americans

No matter how many we are, Americans who have moved overseas face legal and regulatory impediments that make life abroad difficult, such as:

• FATCA and FBAR reporting is tedious, redundant and expensive, and could lead to onerous penalties.
• U.S.-based financial institutions and banks refuse to deal with Americans living overseas, often terminating accounts with little notice.
• Overseas Americans are caught between two conflicting tax systems, the mandatory U.S. citizenship-based taxation system and the resident-based taxation system in the country where they live.
• Saving for retirement is difficult, if not impossible, due to conflicting requirements, tax-free investments in the country of residence being taxed by the United States, and onerous reporting to the United States.

More issues and problems which confront overseas Americans can be found in the reports from the AARO Advocacy Survey.

VI. AARO’s Advocacy

AARO has advocated for changes to U.S. laws and regulations that fail to respect the American values of equal protection and due process, so as to permit overseas Americans to live ordinary lives like resident Americans. See here for AARO’s recent advocacy submissions.

Endnotes

Note 1: Mr. Pinto has researched the subject of citizenship-based taxation extensively, and has written several proposals, essays, comments and analyses on the topic. See the Constitutionality of Citizenship-Based Taxation, for example. (Return)

Note 2: 2022 FVAP Voter Brief (Return)

Note 3: The FVAP issues OCPA reports every two years. The 2020 OCPA Report, however, kept the same population estimates as those in the 2018 OCPA Report. In the 2020 Report, the FVAP stated, “[i]n the coming year, FVAP plans to rigorously assess and update its statistical estimation process and the data sources used, based on lessons learned from 2014-2020 and new 2020 foreign government estimates and other data that have become available.” This is what they have done for the 2022 Report. (Return)

Note 4: Modeled estimates are used instead of government census and registry estimates because: (1) the latter are not available for every country in 2022; (2) the latter may count U.S. born rather than U.S. citizens; and (3) among those which do count U.S. citizens, it is unclear whether they count dual citizens. See 2022 OCPA Technical Report, page 8, footnote 2. (Return)

Note 5: 2022 FVAP Voter Brief (Return)

Note 6: Email from the Managing Director of CA/Overseas Citizens Services on July 11, 2024. She also communicated to AARO that “Some of our annual country fact sheets include broad estimates pulled from a variety of data sources, but due to the challenges of determining how many U.S. citizens are in a given place at a given time, we don’t publish additional or more granular data beyond that. Furthermore, these numbers can vary greatly at different times of the year due to seasonal fluctuations.” (Return)

Note 7: Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels, PhD, Honorary Reader in Politics and Migration at the University of Kent and Scientific Collaborator at the Université de Liège, is an expert on overseas Americans. She has researched and published widely on overseas Americans, with her book Migrants or Expats? Americans in Europe (2014), and a number of articles. She has also written in the past on the topic of numbers of overseas Americans. (Return)

Note 8: Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) data: The data for June 2024 is the most recent and complete. We subtracted the persons living in the U.S. territories from this data, and arrived at 207,616 overseas military personnel. (Return)

Note 9: 2020 Military Census Data: The total overseas population in the census of 350,686 includes U.S. military and their dependents living with them overseas. as well as federal civilian employees and their dependents. The federal civilian employee number (around 30,000) is insignificant for our analysis. See also the OPM US Federal Workforce Data. (Return)